Toward a Resilient Circular Economy Amid Volatility: Conceptualizing a Zero-Leakage Framework for Critical Raw Materials

Circular economy (CE) literature assumes stable market conditions under which waste minimization operates, creating a critical theoretical blind spot when examining critical raw materials supply chains. Market volatility in these contexts creates the systematic exit of materials from circular flows due to economic incentives that favor linear alternatives during market fluctuations. This paper addresses the research question: How can ecosystemic business models maintain circular material flows while achieving zero leakage during market volatility? We develop the ecosystemic circularity stability framework, which integrates three theories, including dynamic network theory, collaborative advantage theory, and coopetition theory. We conceptualize that collaborative economic mechanisms can create counter-cyclical buffers that, through zero-leakage, maintain waste minimization during volatile market conditions. The framework operates through two complementary dimensions: network resilience mechanisms (guaranteed value thresholds and dynamic value sharing) that create protective capabilities, and network intelligence mechanisms (symmetrical information sharing and circularity-integrated pricing) that enable adaptive improvements with zero leakage. Our theoretical contribution is threefold. First, we integrate market volatility as a core consideration in the CE, moving beyond the assumption of stable markets. Second, we theorize how collaborative economic mechanisms create resilience against volatility-induced leakages. Third, we provide theoretical foundations for designing ecosystemic business models that sustain circular material flows under uncertain market conditions. The framework reconceptualizes CE success as an ecosystem coordination challenge rather than an individual waste minimization problem, suggesting that CE requires a more sophisticated understanding of ecosystem-level coordination mechanisms.