Autonomous Vehicles and the Limits of Rapid Adoption: Unintended Consequences for Urban Mobility

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are moving from pilots to regular urban service, yet the speed of large-scale implementation remains uncertain. While prior research emphasizes technological feasibility and adoption, less attention has been paid to the socio-technical dynamics that constrain deployment. This study examines how unintended consequences shape the pace of AV implementation in cities. Drawing on a mixed-methods design combining a structured scoping review with 18 expert interviews, interrelated dynamics are identified across institutional, behavioral, economic-platform, spatial, and normative-societal domains. The findings indicate that implementation speed is not determined by technology alone but emerges from reinforcing feedback loops that generate systemic frictions, including governance lag, demand rebound, spatial bottlenecks, and legitimacy challenges. The study advances a systems-oriented framework that conceptualizes implementation speed as an emergent property of socio-technical dynamics, highlighting the importance of adaptive and anticipatory governance for sustainable urban mobility transitions.