From setback to breakthroughs: The shift in financial investment balance perspectives for disaster risk and management in Brazil

The increased disaster intensity and impact reveal the need for an improved disaster risk and management strategy. This study delves into the financial analysis of pre- and post-disaster investments and understanding their effects on the population. We focus on the case of Brazil, a country plagued by different types of disasters that faces significant challenges in managing these events. The diverse nature of these disasters, ranging from floods to dam collapses, compounds the complexity of effective management. Based on a System Dynamics modeling approach, we ran 2089 simulations for the baseline scenario encompassing municipalities (2,061), states (27), and the national level. Additionally, we ran nine additional scenarios for each case with varying investment levels, resulting in 18,801 simulations. These extensive analyses revealed that prioritizing pre-disaster investments significantly reduces mortality and the number of affected individuals, emphasizing the critical value of proactive measures. We propose a classification system for municipalities to support policy decisions, offering a targeted framework to guide policymakers in resource allocation. Additionally, our findings highlight the importance of a balanced approach: while preventive measures yield substantial long-term benefits, robust post-disaster responses remain essential for effective risk management. This study provides actionable insights for optimizing resource allocation, minimizing the socioeconomic impacts of disasters, and enhancing resilience. By emphasizing early investments and evidence-based policy design, Brazil and other disaster-prone regions can better safeguard their populations and foster more resilient societies.